Value Betting Explained Profitable Bets with xGoals and EV

Understanding and calculating odds in various formats is crucial for identifying value bets, as it helps translate odds into implied probabilities. This knowledge enables bettors to pinpoint where their assessment of an event diverges from the bookmaker’s, offering potential profit opportunities. Value betting software scans multiple bookmakers in real time to spot price discrepancies that create +EV opportunities. These tools save hours of manual searching and greatly increase the chances of identifying profitable bets. Value bets occur because bookmakers and betting markets don’t always set odds that perfectly reflect the true probability of an outcome.

They are often released late at night or early in the morning, so are also known as overnight lines. They use this to predict the likelihood of the outcomes of a wide range of bets. Implied probability shows how likely an outcome is, as implied by the odds. The Kelly criterion is an approach to staking that helps optimize the long-term growth of your bankroll based on the expected value of a bet. You’ll find that using RebelBetting to find value bets is neither difficult nor time-consuming. RebelBetting is built to be user-friendly and intuitive, making it easy for you to take full advantage of all value bets.

• RebelBetting does all of this for you with the extensive filtering capabilities inside the value betting software.
• Value betting seeks situations where bookmaker odds underestimate the true probability of an event.
• In other words, bookmakers or betting exchanges sometimes offer odds that are better or worse than the true probability, creating opportunities for value betting.
• Bookmaker and exchange odds aren’t static, changing in response to bets placed on the market.

In each case, the goal is to produce a positive Expected Value (EV), or player “edge,” over time. When placing value bets, consider usingEdge, MadMarket’s sports trading platform that provides the bettor with the best odds from over 10 bookmakers and exchange sites. Value betting is a long-term strategy, and due to variance, short-term results can fluctuate. Most bettors begin to see their edge after placing several hundred value bets. But over the long run, if your bets have positive expected value (+EV), the math will work in your favor.

Monthly Pro Betting Insights

In real betting, variance is real – protect your bankroll and stake wisely. The simulation starts with a $1,000 bankroll, stakes up to 2% per bet, and assumes a 5% expected value (EV) per bet. It illustrates expected growth only; actual results will vary and losses are possible.

Value in betting is the difference between the probability of winning a bet and the odds offered by the bookmaker. When the probability of winning a bet is higher than the odds given, there is perceived value in the bet and the bettor should place their wager. That being said, if done correctly, value betting can be an effective strategy for long-term profits. It is important to remember that there is always a chance of losing money when engaging in any type of sports betting.

Always evaluate results carefully, look for transparency, and avoid anyone making unrealistic claims. Check the prices bc.game – Using Edge, it will show the different prices of a selection and compare these with the true price of your selections to see if any are offering value. However, perhaps Horse 1 tends to finish relatively strongly, even if he doesn’t win, and usually finishes in the top 3 places. Although this won’t lock in a profit, the bet will have long-term value.

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Value Betting

Value bettors are in for the long haul and always come out as winners in the end. With this strategy, you guarantee consistent profits over a longer period of time by only placing bets on overpriced odds. In the essence of value betting is the identification of positive expected value (+EV) bets. This concept hinges on the belief that the actual probability of an event occurring is higher than what the market suggests.

Implied Probability

To factor in a margin, the bookmaker lowers these odds to set their actual odds. For this game, they might have odds of 8 for Serbia, 4.5 for the draw, and 1.44 for England. These correspond to fair odds of 9.52 for a Serbia win, 4.65 for a draw, and 1.47 for an England win. Bookmakers use betting analysts, sports traders, and quants (quantitative analysts) to assess, as accurately as possible, the likelihood of an outcome. This is just a way of saying, with maths, that you win £10 half the time and lose £10 the other half.

Value betting can still work, provided bettors stick to the aspects that make the approach work. If real value can be identified accurately, individuals will have a better chance of identifying the bets that have value. If the result of the equation is positive, then it can be considered a bet with value. It is perhaps easier to understand it when the bet is between two outcomes, as the real probability would be 50%, however implied probability may offer odds that are slightly in favour of one result. Fewer, larger bets increase the risk of dramatic swings because each outcome carries more weight. A higher number of smaller bets spreads risk across more events, reducing volatility and giving results a better chance to align with expected value over time.

If you add all the implied probabilities and it comes to 110%, the overround is 10%. A £10 each way bet consists of a £10 bet on the horse to win and a £10 bet on them to place (for example, to finish in the top 3 places). Bookmakers assess the chance of each horse winning a race and set their odds accordingly. The type of change of interest to us is one caused by expert opinion, whether that’s from professional gamblers or betting syndicates. When this leads to a large volume of bets being placed on a certain outcome within a short space of time, this causes a dramatic and rapid odds change. Many Asian bookmakers, for example, Dafabet and 188Bet, are generally considered to be sharp bookmakers.

With value betting being a long-term strategy, losses will naturally occur, so it can be best to try and keep to an approach that involves fixed betting stakes. Tipsters use data, expertise, and analysis to provide betting advice. Some specialise in finding value by spotting when the true probability of an outcome is greater than the odds imply.

However, if value can be identified regularly, long-term profits could be obtained as bettors will understand where the edge is and where they can potentially exploit it. This particular approach requires bettors to look at the probability of events and the odds that have been set by bookmakers. There can be discrepancies where the prices set do not reflect the perceived chance of something happening, thus creating value for the bettor. A value bet can be identified when a bettor believes that the probability of an event occurring is greater than the implied probability of the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Once Pinnacle have refined their odds from their opening odds, they can confidently increase their betting limits to as high as £50,000 or more for some markets. Bookmakers can be roughly divided into two types – sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers. It takes into account the likelihood of the bet winning or losing, the profit you make if it wins, and the loss you take if it loses. The bookmaker would then go out of business quickly, which is why they don’t offer fair odds. Value betting comes with certain risks, such as the possibility of the bet not working out in your favor.

Make sure to check out our betting odds converter in order to easily convert odds between the above formats. A seasoned iGaming professional providing expert advice on online betting and casinos to readers worldwide, taking an analytical view to games and odds. To manage risk, the Kelly staking plan can be adjusted using a Kelly divider (typically 4–10).